Country Primer · 2025

Sudan

A state fracturing at the seams — war, famine, and the long shadow of colonialism
48M
Population
0.508
HDI Rank (172nd)
Apr '23
War began
11M+
Displaced

A republic that never found its republic

Sudan gained independence from Anglo-Egyptian condominium rule on January 1, 1956 — the first sub-Saharan African country to do so. What followed was not the promised constitutional democracy but a cycle of military coups and civilian interludes that has defined the country's entire post-colonial history. The pattern is almost mechanical: a military government grows extractive and unpopular; civilians protest; there is a brief democratic opening; the military returns.

The first coup came in 1958, just two years after independence, when General Ibrahim Abboud seized power. A civilian uprising — the October Revolution — ousted him in 1964, initiating a democratic interlude. General Jaafar Nimeiry's coup in 1969 ended that. Nimeiry himself was toppled in a popular uprising in 1985, leading to an elected government under Sadiq al-Mahdi, great-grandson of the famous Mahdi who had defeated the British in the 1880s. That government, too, was overthrown — in 1989, by Brigadier Omar al-Bashir in a coup backed by the Islamist movement of Hassan al-Turabi.

The Bashir Years (1989–2019)

Bashir's thirty-year rule transformed Sudan in profound and largely catastrophic ways. The early years were dominated by Turabi's National Islamic Front — Sudan became a hub for political Islamism internationally, famously hosting Osama bin Laden from 1991 to 1996. This brought devastating US sanctions from 1997, which collapsed the formal banking sector and drove decades of economic isolation.

The regime prosecuted the civil war in the south with extraordinary brutality, including the use of famine as a weapon. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005 ended that war but set in motion the referendum that would split the country: South Sudan became independent in July 2011, taking with it roughly 75% of Sudan's oil reserves — a fiscal catastrophe from which Sudan has never recovered.

Even as the south was negotiating its exit, Bashir launched a counterinsurgency in Darfur in 2003 that became one of the worst atrocity campaigns of the 21st century. The Janjaweed militias — Arab pastoralist fighters armed and directed by the state — killed an estimated 300,000 people and displaced 2.5 million. In 2009, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Bashir for genocide — the first sitting head of state to be so charged. He remained in power for a decade thereafter.

The Revolution and Its Betrayal (2019–2023)

By 2018, Sudan was running out of road. The loss of oil revenues, chronic hyperinflation, and the removal of bread and fuel subsidies sparked protests beginning in December 2018. The movement was remarkable: deeply organised, led significantly by young professionals and women, coordinated by the Sudanese Professionals Association. Months of sustained demonstrations culminated in a sit-in outside SAF headquarters in Khartoum. On April 11, 2019, the military removed Bashir and placed him under arrest.

What followed was the transitional period — a Sovereignty Council shared between the military and civilian forces, with the civilian economist Abdalla Hamdok as Prime Minister. But the arrangement was always unequal. The two military figures at the table — SAF commander General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti — had no intention of surrendering power. In October 2021, they staged a coup, arrested civilian leaders, and dissolved the transitional government. Hamdok briefly returned under international pressure, then resigned in January 2022, realising he had no real authority.

"The generals took the revolution and wore it like a costume. When it suited them, they called themselves revolutionaries. When it didn't, they called themselves stabilisers."

— Sudanese activist, 2022 (quoted in The Guardian)

The 2023 War

The rupture between Burhan (SAF) and Hemeti (RSF) — which many analysts had long anticipated — finally exploded on April 15, 2023, when fighting broke out across Khartoum and simultaneously in Darfur. The trigger was a dispute over how and whether to integrate the RSF into the regular armed forces as part of a transition plan being brokered under international pressure. Neither general was willing to submit to the other's command.

The war has been ferocious and complex. The RSF, with their experience of irregular warfare and their control of gold revenues, rapidly seized large parts of Khartoum and effectively destroyed the capital. In Darfur, RSF attacks on non-Arab communities replicated the atrocities of the 2000s — in El Fasher and across the region, the Masalit and other groups have faced mass killing, rape as a weapon of war, and systematic destruction of towns. The SAF, nominally controlling more territory in the north and east, has relied heavily on aerial bombardment of civilian areas.

As of 2025, no decisive military outcome has emerged. The SAF recaptured much of Khartoum in 2025 but the RSF remains dominant in Darfur and parts of Kordofan. The UN's World Food Programme describes Sudan as the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 11 million internally displaced and more than 2 million refugees in neighbouring states.

Defining moments

1820
Ottoman-Egyptian conquest
Muhammad Ali's forces conquer Sudan, integrating it into the Khedivate of Egypt. Extractive rule — slaves, ivory, gold — defines the relationship that shapes Sudan's north-south political economy for generations.
1881–98
The Mahdist State
Muhammad Ahmad declares himself the Mahdi (expected redeemer of Islam) and leads a successful revolt, famously killing General Gordon at Khartoum in 1885. The Mahdist state — the first truly indigenous Sudanese government — rules until Britain's Kitchener defeats it at the Battle of Omdurman in 1898.
1899–1956
Anglo-Egyptian Condominium
Sudan governed jointly by Britain and Egypt in theory; Britain in practice. The colonial administration deepens the north-south divide by governing the two regions separately. The south is effectively closed to northern (Arab-Muslim) influence, while Christian missionaries and English education take hold among southern peoples.
1956
Independence
Sudan becomes independent on January 1 — Africa's largest country by area. The first civil war between north and south had already begun in 1955, even before independence. The new state inherits deep structural divisions and colonial-era inequalities.
1972
Addis Ababa Agreement
Nimeiry ends the first civil war through a negotiated peace granting the south autonomy. A decade of relative stability follows — but Nimeiry's 1983 declaration of Islamic law (Sharia) across all of Sudan, including the Christian and Animist south, restarts the war.
1989
Bashir's Islamist coup
Omar al-Bashir seizes power backed by Hassan al-Turabi's National Islamic Front. The regime imposes a theocratic order, providing sanctuary to international jihadist networks, provoking US sanctions, and conducting the second civil war against the south with mass atrocities.
2003–05
Darfur genocide & CPA
The regime's response to insurgency in Darfur deploys Janjaweed militias against civilian populations. ~300,000 killed, 2.5 million displaced. Simultaneously, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement with the SPLM ends the southern civil war after 2 million deaths and grants the south the right to a referendum.
2009
ICC arrest warrant for Bashir
The International Criminal Court indicts Bashir on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes in Darfur — the first sitting head of state so charged. Bashir continues to govern, travels to AU and Arab League summits, and is never arrested while in power.
2011
South Sudan secedes
98.8% vote for independence. Sudan loses roughly 75% of its oil production overnight. The fiscal shock triggers years of currency devaluation, subsidy cuts, and economic decline. Sudan's GDP shrinks sharply and the country never finds an alternative revenue base.
2018–19
The December Revolution
Months of mass protests — triggered by bread prices, sustained by extraordinary civic organisation — force the military to remove Bashir in April 2019. A brief but genuinely hopeful transitional period follows, with civilian-led government under PM Hamdok attracting international rehabilitation.
Oct 2021
Military coup against the transition
Generals Burhan and Hemeti jointly arrest civilian leaders and dissolve the Sovereignty Council's civilian component. International aid — $700M annually — is suspended. Hamdok returns briefly under pressure, resigns in January 2022. Sudan re-enters full military rule.
Apr 2023
SAF–RSF war begins
Fighting erupts simultaneously in Khartoum and Darfur on April 15. Within weeks, the capital is largely destroyed, hospitals are looted and used as military positions, and the RSF perpetrates mass atrocities in El Geneina and across Darfur. By end of 2023, over 7,000 killed in El Geneina alone. The crisis escalates to become the world's largest displacement emergency.

An economy hollowed out by extraction

Sudan's economic story is a textbook case of resource dependency, institutional decay, and the catastrophic consequences of losing your main revenue source. To understand where Sudan is economically, three moments matter most: the oil boom, the secession shock, and the war.

The Oil Dependency and Secession Shock

Oil was discovered in Sudan in the 1970s but only became a major export from the late 1990s. By 2010, oil accounted for roughly 50% of government revenues and 90% of export earnings. The infrastructure — pipelines, the Port Sudan terminal — was entirely in the north, even though most of the oil was in the south. When South Sudan seceded in 2011, Sudan lost the oil but retained the pipeline, creating an initially dysfunctional arrangement: South Sudan needed northern infrastructure to export; Sudan needed southern oil revenues to survive. Negotiations over transit fees broke down repeatedly.

The immediate fiscal impact was severe. Sudan lost roughly $2 billion annually in oil revenues. The currency collapsed — the Sudanese pound fell from around SDG 2.6/USD in 2011 to SDG 45/USD by 2018, and SDG 600/USD by 2022. Inflation ran at 340% annually in 2020.

Gold as the New Resource Curse

Gold has partially replaced oil as Sudan's main export earner — Sudan is Africa's third-largest gold producer. But gold has proven, if anything, an even more destructive resource. The RSF under Hemeti has used gold revenues from Darfur and Kordofan mines to fund its military operations. Much gold is smuggled through the UAE — Dubai is the primary destination for Sudanese gold, often without appearing in official statistics. Gold therefore enriches warlords rather than the state, financing the very war that is destroying the economy.

Sudan — Selected economic indicators
GDP Per Capita (USD, PPP) — Regional Comparison (2023)
Sub-Saharan avg
~$4,100
Ethiopia
$2,800
Chad
$1,600
Sudan
~$750
Export Composition (pre-war estimate, 2022)
Gold
~47%
Livestock
~25%
Oil (transit)
~13%
Agriculture
~10%
Other
~5%

Agriculture: The Unrealised Potential

Sudan is sometimes called the "breadbasket of the Arab world" — it has roughly 200 million acres of arable land, significant water resources from the Nile and its tributaries, and a large agricultural workforce. The Gezira Scheme, the world's largest irrigation project under a single management, covers 1 million hectares south of Khartoum and has produced cotton, wheat, and groundnuts since the colonial era.

Yet Sudan consistently fails to realise this potential. Agricultural productivity is among the lowest in the world — subsistence farming dominates, modern inputs are barely used, and tenure insecurity (particularly affecting nomadic herders and displaced communities) prevents investment. The war has devastated the Gezira Scheme, with looting of equipment and disruption of irrigation management turning this formerly productive zone into a battleground.

Sanctions, Debt, and the Formal Economy

US sanctions imposed in 1997 (for Sudan's support of terrorism) effectively cut the country off from the international financial system for over two decades — no access to the World Bank, IMF programs, or dollar-denominated trade finance. This drove the emergence of parallel currency markets, informal hawala transfer networks, and an entrenched shadow economy. Sudan was added to the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list, compounding the isolation.

The 2019 revolution created a window: the US removed Sudan from the terrorism list in 2020, and Sudan began debt relief discussions under the HIPC framework. That process — which would have unlocked significant debt relief and new financing — was suspended entirely by the 2021 coup and then shattered by the 2023 war.

Indicator Value Context
GDP (nominal, 2023 est.) ~$35B Down from ~$45B pre-war; war-related contraction severe
GDP per capita (PPP) ~$750 Among lowest 10 globally; less than $2/day
Inflation (2023) >200% War financing has collapsed monetary discipline
External debt ~$55B ~160% of GDP; HIPC process suspended
Agriculture % of GDP ~39% Employs ~80% of rural population
Remittances ~$1.5B/yr (pre-war) Large diaspora in Gulf states; critical income source
Poverty rate >60% Below $2.15/day; sharply worsened by war

A mosaic state — and the violence of simplification

Sudan is one of the most ethnically and linguistically diverse countries on earth. Over 500 distinct ethnic groups speak more than 100 languages. The colonial-era imposition of an "Arab-Muslim" national identity — accelerated under Bashir's Islamist project — onto this extraordinary diversity is the root of most of Sudan's political violence. Every major conflict — the two civil wars, Darfur, the current war — is in part a story of the centre (Khartoum's Arabised elite) attempting to impose itself on the periphery.

The Arab-African Tension

The terms "Arab" and "African" in the Sudanese context are only partially about ancestry — they are also about identity, language, political alignment, and often economic position. The northern Sudanese ruling class has historically identified as Arab (though most are of mixed ancestry), spoke Arabic, and oriented the state toward the Arab world. Peripheral populations — in Darfur, the Nuba Mountains, the Blue Nile — are often identified as "African", speak indigenous languages, and have faced systematic marginalisation: underfunding of schools and health facilities, exclusion from civil service, and vulnerability to land dispossession as Arab nomadic groups were historically given priority over sedentary farming communities.

In Darfur, this tension became genocidal. The conflict was not simply "Arabs versus Africans" — many people in Darfur identify as both — but the Janjaweed (and now the RSF, its successor) have targeted non-Arab communities, particularly the Masalit, Fur, and Zaghawa peoples, with ethnic-specific violence, mass rape, and destruction of villages.

Demographic Profile

IndicatorValue
Population~48 million (2024 est.)
Median age~19 years
Urban population~36%
Population growth rate~2.5% per year
Fertility rate~4.4 births per woman
Muslim population~97%
Arabic speakers~70% (as first or second language)
Social IndicatorValue
Life expectancy~67 years
Adult literacy~61% overall; ~51% women
Under-5 mortality57 per 1,000 live births
Stunted children (<5)~38%
Access to clean water~57% (rural: 40%)
Secondary school enrolment~40%
Female labour participation~25%

The Youth Dividend — and Its Danger

With a median age of around 19 and over 60% of the population under 25, Sudan has an enormous youth population. In a stable state with investment in education and jobs, this would be a classic demographic dividend — a large, young workforce entering productivity. In Sudan's current condition, it represents a crisis: hundreds of thousands of young men without education, employment, or prospects, prime candidates for recruitment by the SAF, RSF, or armed tribal militias. The RSF in particular has recruited heavily from poor, marginalised youth in Darfur and Kordofan.

Women and the Revolution

One of the most remarkable aspects of the 2018-19 revolution was the centrality of women — the image of Alaa Salah, a 22-year-old engineering student in white, standing on a car leading protest chants, became one of the defining images of the Arab world's most recent wave of uprising. Women's participation was not incidental: after decades of Bashir's Islamist public order laws — which criminalised "indecent dress" and severely restricted women's movement and work — the revolution was explicitly a rejection of patriarchal theocracy. The tragic sequel is that the 2023 war has involved systematic sexual violence against women, particularly by RSF forces in Darfur, on a scale that human rights organisations describe as possibly the worst anywhere in the world right now.

Humanitarian Crisis Snapshot (2024–25)

25 million people — more than half the population — face acute food insecurity, the largest number ever recorded by the UN's IPC classification system. Famine has been formally declared in North Darfur. An estimated 150,000+ people have been killed since April 2023 (conservative estimates). Over 2 million Sudanese have fled to Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan — themselves countries under enormous humanitarian strain. Khartoum, a city of 7 million, has been largely emptied and substantially destroyed.

A battleground for competing regional visions

Sudan's war is not only a civil war. It is simultaneously a proxy contest involving the Gulf states, a theatre for Russia's Africa strategy, a test case for the African Union's capacity (or incapacity) to manage its own conflicts, and a humanitarian crisis that strains the entire Horn of Africa neighbourhood. Understanding who is backing whom, and why, is essential to understanding why the war has continued without a negotiated resolution.

The UAE and the RSF

The most consequential external actor in the current war is the United Arab Emirates. The UAE has long had a relationship with Hemeti — the RSF supplied troops to the Saudi-UAE coalition's war in Yemen from 2015, and Hemeti himself visited Abu Dhabi repeatedly. The UAE is the primary destination for Sudanese gold (often mislabelled to avoid sanctions), and Emirati companies have significant interests in Sudanese agriculture — the UAE has leased large tracts of fertile Sudanese land for food production.

Multiple investigations, including by the UN Panel of Experts on Sudan, have documented UAE arms transfers to the RSF — weapons moved through the Central African Republic and Chad, including across the border to Darfur. The UAE has denied this. The RSF's ability to sustain a military campaign against a nominally stronger conventional army depends substantially on this external support.

Egypt and the SAF

Egypt backs the SAF and has provided weapons and drone support to General Burhan. Egypt's concerns are multiple: it shares a long border with Sudan, hosts more than a million Sudanese refugees, and has deep strategic interests in Nile water politics — a strong, stable Sudanese state is a better partner for Egyptian interests in the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) dispute than a fractured one. Egypt is also alarmed by what it sees as Emirati overreach in its neighbourhood.

Russia and the Wagner/Africa Corps Connection

Russia's interest in Sudan predates the current war. The Wagner Group had a significant presence — Sudan was a major source of gold that helped fund Wagner operations across Africa. Russia had negotiated (under Bashir, and continued under the transitional government) a naval base agreement at Port Sudan on the Red Sea — providing Russia with its only permanent foothold on that strategically critical waterway. Russia has supported the SAF in the current conflict, providing some equipment and political cover. The Russia-Sudan relationship illustrates the broader Wagner/Africa Corps model: military access and political support in exchange for resource extraction concessions.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf

Saudi Arabia occupies a more ambiguous position. It has historically backed Sudanese stability — Sudan's large labour migration to the Gulf gives both parties economic stakes in the relationship. Saudi Arabia co-chaired the Jeddah process (with the US) attempting to negotiate a ceasefire from 2023 onward. The ceasefire negotiations have thus far failed to produce a durable halt, partly because neither party believes the other will honour agreements, and partly because external backers (especially the UAE) have had more interest in military outcomes than diplomatic ones.

Ethiopia, Chad, and the Neighbourhood

Ethiopia is simultaneously managing its own post-Tigray reconstruction and a border dispute with Sudan over the al-Fashaga agricultural region. Sudanese refugees are adding pressure to Ethiopia's already-strained camp system. Ethiopia's influence is limited by its own internal preoccupations. Chad, which hosts over a million Sudanese refugees in its east, is led by a government with complex relationships with both Sudanese factions and has struggled to prevent armed actors from using its territory. The instability in Sudan intersects with the broader Sahel crisis — the collapse of state authority across the region.

"The Sudanese people are dying while their neighbours argue about pipelines, gold, and naval bases."

— UN Special Adviser on Sudan, 2024

Western Powers and the Limits of Leverage

The United States and European Union have called for ceasefires, imposed targeted sanctions on RSF commanders, and channelled humanitarian aid. But Western leverage is structurally limited: after decades of isolation under Bashir, the US–Sudan relationship had only just begun to normalise. The 2021 coup set it back. The US has no significant economic interests or security partnerships that would give it decisive leverage over either military faction. The EU's primary concern has been migration — Sudan sits on a major migration route toward Libya and the Mediterranean — which has complicated European advocacy for human rights over pragmatic stability deals.

The principals and their interests

Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan
SAF Commander · De facto head of state
Career military officer who rose under Bashir, commanding forces in Darfur during the genocide era. Led the SAF faction of the transitional Sovereignty Council and masterminded the 2021 coup. Now fighting the RSF he once partnered with. Controls northern Sudan, relies on Egyptian and some Gulf support, seeks international legitimacy as the "legitimate government."
Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ("Hemeti")
RSF Commander
Camel trader from Darfur who rose through Janjaweed ranks, built the RSF into a parallel army of 100,000+, amassed a gold-based business empire, and cultivated Gulf relationships through Sudan's Yemen deployment. Now commands the RSF in a war that has made him internationally notorious. His forces have committed atrocities in Darfur rivalling those of the 2000s.
Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA)
Civil Society · Revolutionary movement
The organising backbone of the 2018–19 revolution — doctors, lawyers, engineers who coordinated protests and articulated democratic demands. Now largely in exile or suppressed, but representing the genuine democratic aspirations of the Sudanese urban middle class. Their network has continued advocacy from diaspora positions.
Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC)
Civilian coalition · Political
The broad civilian coalition that negotiated the Constitutional Declaration with the military after 2019. Fragmented after the 2021 coup between those willing to engage with the military and those refusing. Represents the institutional face of Sudanese democratic politics but lacks any military leverage.
United Arab Emirates
External · RSF backer
The most consequential external backer of the RSF. UAE gold trade, arms supply (documented by UN experts), and financial relationships with Hemeti's networks sustain the RSF's war effort. UAE motivations include agricultural land access, anti-Islamist ideology (the SAF has Muslim Brotherhood-linked factions), and competition with Turkey and Qatar for Horn of Africa influence.
Egypt
External · SAF backer
Arms supplier to SAF, provider of drone support. Motivated by border security, Nile water politics, refugee flows, and concern about UAE expansion. President Sisi has a personal relationship with Burhan. Egypt sees a RSF victory as destabilising — the RSF's Darfur base sits near Egypt's own restive southern regions.
Russia / Africa Corps
External · Strategic interest
Successor to Wagner in Sudan. Russia's primary interest is the Port Sudan naval base agreement — the only Russian military foothold on the Red Sea. Has provided some military support to SAF. Also extracts gold through informal channels. Sudan fits Russia's Africa strategy of backing military governments against Western-supported civilian transitions.
African Union
Regional · Mediation
Mandated as lead mediator but severely constrained. Member states have conflicting interests (Egypt is a member; so are Ethiopia and Chad with their own stakes). The AU's "African solutions for African problems" principle has not translated into effective pressure. The AU High-Level Panel on Sudan has met repeatedly without producing a ceasefire that holds.

Where Sudan stands — and what it would take

172nd
HDI Global Rank (2023)
Out of 193. Among the bottom 15 globally. Below Chad, above only Central African Republic and Niger in the neighbourhood.
>60%
Population below poverty line
$2.15/day threshold. War has sharply worsened this — pre-war estimates were ~35%.
0.51
Human Development Index Score
Low human development category. Score has declined since 2021 due to war and economic collapse.
~38%
Child stunting rate
Chronic malnutrition affecting cognitive development of the next generation. Worsening with famine conditions.
57
Under-5 Mortality (per 1,000)
Vs. global average of ~37. Hospital system largely non-functional in conflict zones.
61%
Adult literacy rate
Gender gap severe: male ~70%, female ~51%. Rural areas significantly lower.

Applying the Development Framework: What Would It Take?

Against the framework of human capability building, productive capacity, and incentive structures discussed in development economics, Sudan fails at almost every precondition. But it is important to be precise about why — the failures are not random, and understanding their causes is essential for thinking about any recovery.

Human capital: Sudan has chronically under-invested in education and health — not from lack of resources in theory (oil revenues existed) but because the Bashir regime deliberately concentrated state spending on the military and patronage networks. The Gezira region has some of the better educational infrastructure, but peripheral regions — Darfur, Kordofan, Blue Nile — have been systematically starved of schools and clinics. The war has now destroyed much of what existed: over 90% of schools in some conflict areas are closed, and the health system is functionally collapsed in war zones.

Land reform and agricultural incentives: This is the most direct application of Sen's analysis. Sudan's agricultural potential is enormous but structurally unrealised. The core problem is a combination of insecure tenure (nomadic-sedentary conflicts over land have been weaponised politically), the large-scale leasing of land to Gulf investors without benefit to local communities, and the Gezira Scheme's institutional decay under decades of mismanagement. Land reform — specifically securing tenure rights for small farmers and resolving the nomadic-sedentary conflict through negotiated territorial arrangements — would be foundational to any agricultural revival.

Productive capacity and manufacturing: Sudan has essentially no industrial base. US sanctions prevented FDI for two decades. The infrastructure — roads, power, communications — is severely underdeveloped outside Khartoum (now itself destroyed). Any manufacturing strategy presupposes peace, infrastructure, and a functioning financial system — none of which exist. The realistic entry point would be agricultural value-addition: processing, packaging, and export of the products Sudan already grows.

The gold problem: Gold is Sudan's most valuable current resource, but it operates almost entirely outside the formal economy. Formalising and taxing gold extraction — creating a transparent licensing system, stopping smuggling through the UAE, channelling revenues into a sovereign wealth fund — would be the most direct path to a fiscal base. This is analytically straightforward and politically nearly impossible while warlords control the mines.

The Sen Framework: Capability Deprivation as the Core Problem

Amartya Sen's concept of development as expanding human freedoms captures Sudan's situation with particular precision. The barriers to development are not primarily technical or financial — they are political. Sudanese people have been systematically denied the political freedoms (accountable government, free press, civil liberties) that Sen argues are not just outcomes of development but preconditions for it. The 2019 revolution was, in Sen's terms, a massive assertion by ordinary Sudanese people of their claim to those freedoms. The military's response — in 2021 and catastrophically in 2023 — represents the violent reassertion of capability deprivation.

A Realistic Development Pathway — Sequenced

Phase 1 (Immediate — requires peace): Ceasefire and humanitarian access. Restore basic health and education services. Stabilise the currency with international support. Resume HIPC debt relief process. These are preconditions, not development proper.

Phase 2 (Short-term, 2–5 years): Formalise gold revenues. Rebuild Gezira Scheme. Mass primary school rehabilitation. Basic healthcare restoration with international NGO support. Land tenure reform in agricultural zones.

Phase 3 (Medium-term, 5–15 years): Infrastructure (roads, power, connectivity) connecting peripheral regions. Agricultural value-addition industries. Export diversification. Civil service reform and institution-building. University and vocational education expansion.

The honest assessment: Phase 1 is not currently happening. Sudan is moving in the opposite direction — accumulating capability deprivation, destroying institutions, and entrenching warlord economies that will be deeply resistant to reform even after any eventual peace.

Comparators: What Has Worked Elsewhere?

The most relevant comparators for post-conflict development are Rwanda (strong state-led reconstruction after genocide, with tight governance and export diversification), Mozambique (aid-dependent reconstruction after civil war, with mixed results), and Ethiopia (activist developmental state with high infrastructure investment but authoritarian politics). Sudan's geography, resource endowment, and agricultural potential are arguably better than all three. The binding constraint has never been potential — it has been the political economy of a military elite that captures rents and prevents the state from investing in its citizens.

The one genuinely hopeful structural factor: Sudan's diaspora. An estimated 3–4 million Sudanese live abroad, primarily in the Gulf, Egypt, and Europe, sending remittances that have been a critical income source for families. This diaspora contains enormous human capital — doctors, engineers, academics, businesspeople — who left because Sudan offered them nothing. Any serious reconstruction would need to create conditions for diaspora return and investment. Several East African and Asian development stories have relied heavily on diaspora engagement; Sudan has this resource in abundance, waiting.

Bringing Sudan alive — a curated pathway

Organised not by format but by what each work gives you — the layer of understanding it unlocks. Start with human texture, build toward structure, then go deep. Each entry has a note on why it earns its place on this list.

I — Human Texture: Fiction & Memoir

Fiction Essential
Season of Migration to the North
Tayeb Salih · 1966 · Novel

The single most important work of Sudanese literature — and one of the great Arabic novels of the twentieth century. A young Sudanese man returns from studying in England to his village on the Nile, and encounters a mysterious stranger, Mustafa Sa'eed, whose story of violence, seduction, and self-destruction in Europe becomes a meditation on colonialism, identity, and what is lost and gained in the encounter between worlds. The Nile village Salih draws is extraordinarily specific — the heat, the rhythms of agricultural life, the hierarchies of the community — and the novel's central question (what does the colonised person owe the coloniser's culture? what does it owe itself?) has never been more alive. Read this first. Everything else in Sudanese culture is in conversation with it.

Why this: It gives you the interior life of northern Sudanese riverain culture — the very culture that has dominated the state and whose contradictions have driven the country's politics.
Fiction
Bandarshah (The Doum Tree of Wad Hamid)
Tayeb Salih · Stories collected 1960s–70s

Salih's shorter fiction — particularly the novella Bandarshah and the celebrated short story The Doum Tree of Wad Hamid — fills in the texture of Nile village life that Season of Migration establishes. The Doum Tree is a perfect 20-page story about a village's resistance to modernity and its attachment to a sacred tree — a parable about Sudanese society's relationship with tradition and outside pressure that remains completely current. Available in the Penguin Modern Classics edition of Salih's collected stories.

Why this: The short fiction is more accessible than the novel and gives the same quality of cultural immersion in a single sitting.
Fiction Essential
Featherweight
Rania Mamoun · 2021 · Short Stories (trans. Elisabeth Jaquette)

A collection of short stories by a contemporary Sudanese woman writer — spare, quietly devastating, set in the Khartoum of the Bashir years. Mamoun writes about women navigating an Islamist state: its small humiliations, its surveillance of bodies and dress, the interior resistance of ordinary people. Where Salih gives you the riverain village, Mamoun gives you the urban, female, modern experience that was at the heart of the 2019 revolution. Translated beautifully by Elisabeth Jaquette, who has championed Arabic women's writing in English translation.

Why this: A necessary corrective to Salih's male-centred lens, and perhaps the best available literary window into the Bashir-era city.
Memoir / Non-fiction Essential
A Woman of No Importance... in Sudan
Isra'a al-Mahdi and others — see note

A candid note: there is no single definitive memoir of Sudanese womanhood in English translation comparable to, say, Warsan Shire's poetry for Somalia. The gap is real. The closest available: the essays and memoir writing collected in Walking on Ceilings (anthology of Arab women's writing, various translators) and the spoken testimonies documented by the Sudan Human Rights Hub and the African Arguments series Sudanese Women Speak. Isra'a al-Mahdi, a Sudanese blogger imprisoned under Bashir for her writing, has essays available online through Index on Censorship — spare and essential.

Why this: Honest curation means flagging the gap. The best available window on Sudanese women's voices is currently dispersed across journalism, testimony, and translation projects rather than consolidated in a single book.
Fiction
No Knives in the Kitchens of This City
Khaled Khalifa · 2016 · Novel (Syrian, but structurally parallel)

Technically Syrian, not Sudanese — but included deliberately. Khalifa's account of a family across decades of Baathist Syria, told through the texture of a city progressively destroyed by a state that turns on its own people, is the closest literary analogue to what Khartoum has experienced since 2023. The mechanisms of political violence, the way a city's personality is erased, the survival strategies of ordinary families — everything Khalifa renders for Aleppo is happening now in Khartoum. Reading this alongside Sudanese journalism creates an imaginative bridge into experiences that Sudanese writers have not yet had time to render (they are still living them).

Why this: Sometimes a neighbouring literature gives you the imaginative framework for an experience still too raw for its own literature to have processed.

II — Historical Structure: The Books That Explain How It Got Here

Non-fiction Essential
Sudan: A History from the Earliest Times to Independence
Douglas H. Johnson · 2016 (revised) · History

The most authoritative single-volume history of Sudan in English — comprehensive without being impenetrable. Johnson traces Sudan from ancient Nubian kingdoms through the Mahdist state, the condominium, and independence. Particularly strong on the north-south dynamic and the colonial administrative decisions that made Sudan's later fractures almost inevitable. Johnson spent years working in Sudan and brings both scholarly rigour and practical knowledge of the country's geography and communities. The revised edition covers the CPA and the lead-up to secession.

Why this: The structural foundation. Read this after the fiction — the human texture of Salih and Mamoun makes Johnson's historical analysis feel inhabited rather than abstract.
Non-fiction Essential
Saviors and Survivors: Darfur, Politics, and the War on Terror
Mahmood Mamdani · 2009 · Political Analysis

A deliberately provocative and important book. Mamdani — the Ugandan-American political scientist — argues that the Western "Save Darfur" campaign systematically misread the conflict as a simple genocide of "Africans" by "Arabs," when the reality was far more politically complex: a civil war rooted in land, drought, and the colonial construction of racial categories, cynically amplified by the US for post-9/11 geopolitical purposes. You don't have to agree with Mamdani's argument in full — many Sudan specialists don't — but engaging with it forces you to think carefully about how the Arab-African binary was constructed, what it obscures, and how Western interventionism shapes the stories told about African conflicts.

Why this: Essential for intellectual honesty. The book is controversial but it sharpens your analytical tools and prevents the lazy "tribalism" framings that dominate lazy coverage of Darfur.
Non-fiction
The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War and the Business of Power
Alex de Waal · 2015 · Political Economy

De Waal is the foremost Western scholar of Sudan and the Horn of Africa — he has been advising peace processes and documenting atrocities in the region for four decades. This book introduces his concept of the "political marketplace": the idea that in countries like Sudan, political loyalty is literally bought and sold, and that governing means maintaining a market in which armed actors and political brokers are paid to stay onside. This framework is the single most useful analytical lens for understanding why Sudan's governments have behaved as they have — including why the RSF, once bought into the system, eventually decided to fight its way to the top.

Why this: The political marketplace framework will permanently change how you read news from Sudan and similar states. De Waal's blog (worldpeacefoundation.org) is also worth following for current analysis.
Non-fiction
A History of the Sudan: From the Coming of Islam to the Present Day
P.M. Holt & M.W. Daly · 6th ed. 2011 · Academic History

The older, more traditional academic history — drier than Johnson but authoritative on the Islamic and Ottoman-Egyptian periods that shaped northern Sudanese identity. Particularly strong on the Mahdist state and the condominium. Best used as a reference alongside Johnson rather than read cover-to-cover.

Why this: Depth on the pre-colonial and early colonial periods that Johnson treats more briefly. Essential if the Mahdist state interests you.

III — Current Crisis: The Best Long-form Journalism

Longread Essential
"The Generals' War"
The New Yorker · Various correspondents · 2023–2024

The New Yorker has produced the most sustained and deeply reported English-language journalism on the 2023 war. Key pieces: Jon Lee Anderson's reporting from Sudan in 2023 on the war's first months; and Declan Walsh's dispatches tracking the RSF's atrocities in Darfur. Available at newyorker.com — the magazine has kept much of its Sudan coverage outside the paywall. The New Yorker's strength here is its willingness to give the story space: these are 8,000-10,000 word pieces that treat Sudan as a complex political crisis rather than a humanitarian photo-opportunity.

Why this: The gold standard of current English-language war reporting on Sudan. Start here for the 2023–present period.
Longread Essential
"Sudan's War Is the World's Greatest Forgotten Catastrophe"
Foreign Affairs · April 2024 · Alan Boswell, Crisis Group

Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group — one of the sharpest analysts working on Sudan — wrote this piece for Foreign Affairs at the war's one-year mark. It systematically explains why the war has been ignored by international media, how external actors (particularly the UAE) have sustained it, and what a realistic diplomatic pathway might look like. Concise, analytically rigorous, and free to read at foreignaffairs.com. Follow Boswell's Sudan thread on X/Twitter for ongoing analysis.

Why this: The best single analytical overview of the current war — bridging journalism and policy analysis. Essential for the geopolitical layer.
Longread
African Arguments — Sudan Series
africanarguments.org · Ongoing · Multiple authors

African Arguments is the best online publication covering African politics in analytical depth. Their Sudan coverage is extensive — multiple pieces a week during the crisis periods, written by Sudanese researchers, diaspora analysts, and regional experts. Particularly strong on civil society, the women's movement, and the peripheral regions that mainstream media ignores. Free to read, searchable by country. The pieces by Sudanese contributors — writing about their own country from inside and outside — are invaluable.

Why this: Corrects the Western-correspondent gaze that dominates most English Sudan coverage. Sudanese voices, writing analytically, about their own country.
Longread
"How the UAE Bankrolled Sudan's Warlord"
The Guardian / various investigative outlets · 2023–24

Several major investigations have traced the UAE-RSF gold pipeline. The Guardian, Reuters, and the Financial Times have all published significant pieces on how Emirati companies have been purchasing Sudanese gold — effectively financing the RSF's war capacity. The UN Panel of Experts reports (linked in Sources) provide the primary documentation. The FT's coverage of the gold trade is particularly forensic. Search "UAE Sudan gold RSF" to find the current state of this reporting thread.

Why this: The economic underpinning of the war. Understanding gold is understanding why the RSF can sustain its campaign against a larger conventional army.
Longread
Sudan Tribune & Radio Dabanga
sudantribune.net · dabangaradio.com · Daily

Two essential Sudanese-run sources for those who want to follow the country in real time. Sudan Tribune is the oldest English-language Sudanese news site — based in Paris to avoid government censorship, it has been publishing since 2003. Radio Dabanga was founded specifically to provide news to Darfur during the genocide years; it now covers the whole country and has correspondents on the ground that no Western outlet matches. Both are primary sources, not analysis — you'll want to read them alongside the analytical work above.

Why this: There is no substitute for Sudanese-run journalism if you want to follow events as they happen rather than as they are processed for Western audiences.

IV — The Analytical Layer: For Those Who Want the Bones

Academic Essential
War in Darfur and the Search for Peace (ed.)
Alex de Waal (ed.) · 2007 · Harvard University Press

An edited volume bringing together the best scholarly work on Darfur — its history, the political economy of the conflict, the international response, and the peace process. De Waal's own chapter on the "crisis of governance" in Sudan is the most cited academic piece on the structural roots of Darfurian violence. Dense but accessible to a serious non-specialist reader. The chapter by Julie Flint on the history of the Janjaweed is the definitive account of how that militia was built.

Why this: The deepest analytical treatment of Darfur available in a single volume. Essential if Darfur — both historical and current — is your primary interest.
Academic / Policy
Sudan's Unfinished Democracy
Willow Berridge · 2015 · Hurst Publishers

A scholarly examination of Sudan's recurring cycles of democratic aspiration and military reversal — analysing the three "October-type" popular uprisings of 1964, 1985, and 2019. Berridge explains why Sudanese civil society has repeatedly produced extraordinary mobilisation and why the military has always ultimately reasserted control. The 2019 revolution makes most sense read against this long pattern. Accessible for a non-academic reader.

Why this: Essential for understanding 2019 as part of a pattern rather than a miracle — which in turn makes 2021 (the coup) less surprising.
Academic paper
"The Political Marketplace Framework" (working paper)
Alex de Waal · World Peace Foundation · 2017 · Free online

The most concise statement of de Waal's political marketplace concept — freely available as a PDF from the World Peace Foundation. If you don't want to read the full book, this 40-page working paper gives you the framework. The core argument: in countries like Sudan, "politics is business conducted by other means" — loyalty is transactional, and governing means managing a market of armed actors rather than building institutions. This paper will permanently change how you read African political crises.

Why this: The most efficient single read for analytical depth. Download it at worldpeacefoundation.org.

V — Watch & Listen: Documentaries and Podcasts

Documentary Essential
Sudan: A People Divided
Al Jazeera English · Various episodes · Free on YouTube

Al Jazeera has produced the most sustained documentary coverage of Sudan over the past decade — its access to Darfur and to Sudanese civil society is unmatched among international broadcasters. The People & Power series has multiple Sudan episodes: the 2019 revolution, the transitional period, and the 2023 war's early months. Search "Al Jazeera Sudan People and Power" on YouTube — most are free. Al Jazeera's Arabic-service documentaries (some with subtitles) go deeper into Sudanese political figures and community voices.

Why this: Al Jazeera has more camera access inside Sudan than any other broadcaster. The footage is irreplaceable.
Documentary Essential
Talking About Trees
Suhaib Gasmelbari · 2019 · Feature documentary

One of the most beautiful and quietly devastating films about Sudan — and about cinema under authoritarianism. Four elderly Sudanese filmmakers, friends since they studied film in Europe in the 1960s and 70s, attempt to reopen a public cinema in Khartoum, shut for decades by Bashir's Islamist government. What sounds like a gentle story about old men and a cinema becomes a profound meditation on culture, memory, censorship, and what is destroyed when a society is not allowed to imagine itself on screen. Won the Berlinale Documentary Prize. Available on MUBI and various streaming platforms.

Why this: The best film made about Sudan — full stop. It shows the Khartoum that the revolution was trying to reclaim, and that the 2023 war has now largely destroyed.
Documentary
Khartoum (1966)
Basil Dearden · Feature film

A caveat up front: this is an old Hollywood film about the siege of Khartoum in 1884–85, starring Charlton Heston as General Gordon and Laurence Olivier in brownface as the Mahdi. It is deeply colonial in its perspective — the Mahdi is an exotic villain, Gordon a heroic martyr. Watch it not as a history lesson but as an artefact: this is exactly the colonial mythology that Sudanese people have been pushing back against, and understanding what the British Empire told itself about Sudan helps explain the counter-narrative that the Mahdist state represents in Sudanese national memory.

Why this: A useful exercise in reading colonial propaganda as a primary source. Pair with the Johnson history to see the same events from the other side.
Podcast Essential
The Horn — Africa's Inside Story
Crisis Group / ENACT · Ongoing · Free on all platforms

The International Crisis Group's podcast on the Horn of Africa, hosted by Alan Boswell (the same analyst cited in the Foreign Affairs piece above). Regular episodes covering Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the wider region — analytical, deeply sourced, and genuinely expert. Boswell interviews Sudanese political figures, civil society leaders, and regional specialists. The Sudan episodes from 2023–2024 are an essential audio companion to this primer. Start with the April 2024 episode on the war's one-year anniversary.

Why this: The best English-language audio resource on Sudan. Boswell's access to Sudanese political networks is unparalleled among English-speaking analysts.
Podcast
Afropop Worldwide — Sudan Music Episodes
afropop.org · Selected episodes · Free

An unconventional inclusion but a deliberate one. Afropop Worldwide has produced several episodes on Sudanese music — from the Nubian musical traditions of the far north to the Khartoum pop and jazz scenes of the 1970s and 80s, to the revolutionary music of 2019. Music is how Sudanese people have historically processed political trauma and celebrated community. The late Mohammed Wardi — Sudan's most beloved singer, exiled by Bashir — is essential listening. Search his name on any streaming platform: his voice is the sound of the Sudan that was, and that many Sudanese are still trying to recover.

Why this: Every country has a sound. Understanding Sudan's musical culture — and what it means that Bashir tried to silence it — adds a dimension that no academic text can provide.

A suggested reading order

If you want a sequenced path through the above rather than dipping in by category:

1
Start: Season of Migration to the North (Salih) — get the interior. A week with this novel is the best possible foundation.
2
Then watch: Talking About Trees — see the city, the culture, what authoritarianism costs a society. Two hours.
3
Then read: Douglas Johnson's history — now the historical structure will feel inhabited rather than abstract.
4
Then: De Waal's political marketplace working paper (free, 40 pages) — the analytical framework that makes Sudanese politics legible.
5
Then: Alan Boswell's Foreign Affairs piece + two or three African Arguments essays — current crisis, analytically framed.
6
Then: Subscribe to The Horn podcast and Radio Dabanga — follow in real time.
7
For depth: Mamdani's Saviors and Survivors and Berridge's Sudan's Unfinished Democracy — the scholarly layer, when you want it.

References

Data, analysis, and factual claims in this primer draw from the following sources. All data should be treated as estimates — Sudan's statistical capacity is limited, and war has made data collection nearly impossible since 2023.